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Enlargement

3. Agenda

There are presently five candidate countries:
- Croatia
- Iceland
- FYRO Macedonia
- Montenegro
- Turkey

In 2005, the EU opened accession talks with Croatia, following a determination that Croatia was cooperating fully with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY). In Croatia’s Progress Report 2007 the Commission states that the membership negotiations have been progressing well. In 2008, the accession negotiations between the European Union and Croatia moved on to include the areas of freedom of movement for workers, and social policy and employment. The two new chapters of the negotiations were opened during the sixth meeting of the accession conference between Croatia and the EU held in June 2008 in Luxembourg.

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia was given candidate status in December 2005. Its membership negotiations have not yet started (progress report 2007)

Turkey and the European Community first reached an association agreement aimed at developing closer economic ties in 1963, but Turkey’s 1987 application for full EC membership was rejected. The EU formally recognised Turkey as a candidate at the 1999 Helsinki summit, but asserted that Turkey still needed to comply fully with EU’s political and economic criteria. The EU opened accession talks with Turkey in 2005. Formal negotiations between the EU and Turkey on the acquis began in 2006. Talks are expected to last at least a decade.

In its November 2007 annual progress report on Turkey, the European Commission asserted that Turkey continues to make progress on its political reforms. But more work is needed, especially in areas related to fundamental freedoms. Membership talks moved on in 2008 to include the areas of company law, and intellectual property law. The two new chapters of the negotiations were opened during the fifth meeting of the accession conference between Turkey and the EU held in June 2008 in Luxembourg. It is still widely recognized that some EU members and many EU citizens remain wary about Turkey’s possible accession particularly given its large size, relatively poor economy, and Muslim culture.

Several potential candidate countries have been promised the prospect of EU membership as and when they are ready, specifically:
- Albania
- Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Serbia
- Kosovo under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244

At its meeting in Brussels in June 2008 the European Council confirmed its full support for the prospect of a future in Europe - the 'European perspective' - for the countries of the Western Balkans, to whom the EU leaders issued recommendations on drawing closer to the European Union. The European Council welcomed the recent progress made in various respects by the countries of the region while also highlighting certain aspects which still needed to be reformed.

With all the countries of the Western Balkans the EU has established a process – the Stabilisation and Association process - that aims to bring them progressively closer to the EU. Thanks to this process, these countries already enjoy free access to the EU's single market for practically all their exports, as well as EU financial support for their reform efforts.

Croatia: Set to join in 2011?

Croatia moved a step closer to EU membership in February 2011, as the European Parliament adopted a resolution to salute Croatia's "substantial progress". In a five to one vote, MEPs said "negotiations with Croatia can be completed in the first half of 2011 provided that the necessary reforms continue to be pursued resolutely".

Despite progress on reducing corruption, a border dispute with Slovenia, and the war crimes tribunal, Croatia’s biggest hurdle could be the indifference of its own people, who are set to have the final word in a referendum.

Support for EU accession remains low in Croatia, according to the autumn 2010 Eurobarometer. Just over a quarter of Croatians said that joining the EU would be a positive step for their country (up just 1 per cent since spring 2010), while 29 per cent said it would be a bad thing. Most worryingly, voices of indifference rose by 3 per cent over six months, representing 41 per cent of the population.

In addition, 46 per cent of Croatians judged that their country would not benefit from joining the Union, while 39 per cent held the opposite opinion.

Iceland: Accession fast-track?

Formal accession talks between the EU and Iceland began on 27 July 2010. Already a member of Schengen and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), many predicted a 'fast track' process for this north Atlantic country of 320,000 people.

Although it has already adopted a third of EU legislation, hurdles remain for money owed to British and Dutch investors after Iceland’s banking collapse in 2008. This is not optional because EU membership depends on Iceland fulfilling EFTA obligations, which include resolution of debt disputes.

Whether or not Icelanders want to pay (having already voted down one proposal in a referendum), where would the money come from? As in Ireland, the country’s reversal in fortunes has been staggering. Iceland’s GDP shrank by over 15 per cent between 2007 and 2010, largely due to a 27 per cent decline in private consumption – i.e. household spending on goods and services.

Another "relatively big hurdle", according to Iceland’s chief fish negotiator Kolbeinn Arnason, is the fisheries negotiating chapter. In a meeting with MEPs in January 2011, he specified that "the obligation to discard catches, for instance, is unacceptable to us".

Public opinion
Debt and fish are sensitive issues among Iceland’s population, to the extent that many would prefer to postpone EU membership. Ministers from EU nations, including Belgium and France, have noted this lack of public support as another stumbling block. "You have to want to join Europe," said France's EU Minister Pierre Lellouche. "I don't have the impression from the opinion polls that the Icelanders themselves are very favourable: that's the problem."

In late 2010 support for accession was split three ways between those in favour, those against and those with no clear opinion. Support is however growing among Icelanders: the autumn 2010 Eurobarometer found 28 per cent in favour, up 9 per cent compared to the same survey in spring 2010. But just over a third of the population declared themselves against membership, while 30 per cent were indifferent.

General perception of the benefits of EU membership were also up over the six month period between spring and autumn 2010, with 38 per cent stating that accession would bring clear advantages for Iceland. But again, a higher though falling share, 48 per cent, said that EU membership would not bring benefits for the country as a whole.