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Future Energy

3. Geopolitics of Energy

By 2030, the EU is projected to import up to 93 percent of its oil and 84 percent of its natural gas, making it highly dependent on foreign sources of energy. The importance of this situation was reinforced by the 2006 Ukraine/Russia gas dispute, which influenced the EU decision to “diversify” its fossil fuel imports. The 2006 Green Paper set forth three external energy policy objectives of “sustainability, competitiveness and security of supply,” which was reinforced by the March 2007 summit. At present, the EU maintains a series of dialogues with oil and natural gas-producing regions to secure and diversify its energy supply.

In the Middle East, OPEC currently supplies about 40 percent of the EU’s oil supply. Additionally, the EU has a bilateral cooperation agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a group of six Gulf States that hold roughly 45 percent of the world’s oil.

In Russia are approximately 1/3 of the world’s natural gas reserves, and Russia currently supplies roughly 25% of EU natural gas, with imports expected to climb to 50% by 2030. The EU-Russia Energy Dialogue is aimed at securing a supply of Russia’s oil and gas reserves for the EU, and to offer Russia access to European markets.

In the Black Sea and Caspian Sea Regions, The Baku Initiative is a dialogue between the EU and nations of the Black Sea and Caspian Sea aimed at further integration of the EU and Baku country energy markets. It also concerns the status of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Nabucco oil pipelines.

In the Mediterranean, EUROMED is part of an initiative to create a Euro-Mediterranean free-trade area by 2010. EUROMED country Algeria is a major supplier of oil and natural gas to the EU. EUROMED is also concerned with the planned Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP), which is expected to transport Nigerian gas to the EU by 2015.

Other energy agreements include, ECSEE, BASREC and the EU-Norway energy dialogue. In December 2007, the EU-Africa Summit may lead to the creation of an EU-Africa Energy Partnership.